Yes, it’s getting hotter in here

Heat waves and extreme humidity are now more frequently-occurring than they were in the 1960s. (Image: SciLine)

Last Friday, Makati City mayor Abby Binay declared a climate emergency in the city amidst rising sea levels and increasing global temperatures. During a webinar organized by the city’s disaster and risk reduction unit, Binay explained that Makati is a low-lying coastal city, making it vulnerable to natural disasters that are intensified by climate change.

But it’s not just Makati that’s at risk. The Philippines was listed by the Global Climate Risk Index 2021 as one of the countries most affected by catastrophes induced by extreme weather events. Binay, among other local government leaders, has vowed to put more focus into initiatives that address climate change.

Still, the disastrous effects of climate change have been felt all around the world this year, with record temperatures reaching the UK, Norway, and Iraq, among other countries.

The heat has literally sparked wildfires across the UK as meteorologists predict more changes to Brits’ health, transport, and working conditions. In Norway, meltwater from the ice-covered Svalbard was captured going into the ocean.

Meanwhile, as a political crisis ravages Iraq, citizens braved through intense summer temperatures to participate in protests. Coupled with power outages across the country, the vast majority of Iraqis have had to bear the heat without electricity.

A long time coming

Unfortunately, we can’t say that these dangerous bouts of heat came out of nowhere. The average global temperature has increased by at least 1.1 degrees Celsius since 1880 and its effects have been felt since 1980, when yearly temperatures began increasing significantly.

The decade of 2010 to 2019 has been the hottest—so far. (Image: Earth Observatory)

According to NASA, the rate of warming per decade goes from roughly 0.15 to 0.20 degrees Celsius, making 2010 to 2019 the hottest decade on earth since they began keeping track 140 years ago.

Just to be clear, a steadily rising global temperature doesn’t necessarily mean that temperatures everywhere rise at every time at the same rate. Temperatures still vary per region and cold temperatures in one place might be balanced by warm temperatures in another (see: thermal inertia). On top of that, some weather fluctuations are to be expected due to cyclical events (e.g. night and day, seasonal changes) and often unpredictable patterns in precipitation and wind.

That doesn’t make the recent heat waves and other heat-related anomalies any less concerning, though.

The one-degree change in global temperature and the rate at which it continues to increase are worrying because of the sheer amount of heat it takes to warm oceans, land masses, and the atmosphere. A one- to two-degree drop in the past was all it took for the earth to plunge into the Little Ice Age—a climate period that led to colder winters and wetter summers.

Keeping it cool

So who knows what a one-degree rise could do to the planet? That’s what scientists are trying to figure out, too.

A new study said that catastrophic climate change outcomes are still possible, but are not being taken seriously enough by experts. They attribute recent heat waves, forest fires, and other heat-related catastrophes to climate change, but warn of even more extreme catastrophes—and even human extinction—if no action is taken.

The authors argue that the world should start preparing for what they call the climate endgame. “There are ample reasons to suspect that climate change could result in a global catastrophe,” their abstract says, but mainstream science research hasn’t explored the possibility deeper.

High temperatures are also not the only problem. In the future, they could influence food or financial crises, socio-political conflict, and even disease outbreaks.

Moving forward, research on potential catastrophic climate-related events could save lives. As governments like the US push for newer, bigger efforts to tackle climate change in their policies, they’ll be counting on the experts to inform us on what exactly we should worry about and how we can mitigate them—that is, of course, assuming that we believe in climate change in the first place.