What happens when we hit 8 billion?
By 2023, India will surpass China as the world’s most populous country. (Photo: Reuters)
In 1800, the world’s population was only 1 billion. A little over 200 years later, it has now ballooned to 7.9 billion.
There are a few reasons that experts point to for the exponential increase in numbers over the past two centuries. One, advancements in healthcare in most parts of the world have led to falling mortality rates and increased life expectancy. In the pre-modern world, life expectancy around the world was around 30 years. By 2019, the UN estimated that the global average life expectancy was 72.6 years. Estimates also show that life expectancy will extend to 77.2 years globally by 2050.
Another reason why the population is booming is less children are dying. From 1800 to 1950, child mortality around the world dropped from 43% to 22.5%, and from 1950 to recent times, it dropped even further to 4.5%.
But the numbers are suggesting that the rate of population growth is shifting. After two decades of continuously increasing, the growth rate is now slowing down, from a 2.2% increase per year to now less than 1% per year. The UN says that this is the first time the global population growth rate has fallen below 1% since 1950.
The decrease in growth is attributed to the declining birth rate. In 2020, the average birth rate was at 2.3 births per woman, down by more than half from the average of five births per woman in 1950. By 2050, the figure is likely to decrease further to 2.1 births per woman.
Still, even at this slower rate of growth, the UN predicts that by November 2022, the global population will reach 8 billion, which is about 800 million more than what was estimated in 2002.
New forecasts are showing that we’ll reach 9.7 billion in 2050, with a 50/50 chance of shrinking. By 2100, the world population will be between 8.9 billion and 12.4 billion, which means that we could see a 31% increase in the human population by the end of the century.
The world population is expected to reach between 8.9 billion and 12.5 billion by 2100. (Source: The Economist)
More people here, less people there
As we approach the 8 billion mark, researchers predict that there will be major shifts in the global pecking order. For one, China is going to be dethroned by India as the most populous country in the world.
With a head count of 1.4 billion, China has been the most populous country in the world for several centuries. Even in 1750, it had a population of 225 million, taking up about 28% of the world population at the time. But recent studies are showing that China’s population will start declining as early as next year.
India will soon overtake China as the most populous nation. (Source: Our World in Data)
As of now, China and India both have a population of over 1.4 billion people, contributing over 35% to the world’s population. By 2050, India is predicted to have 1.6 billion people, while China is predicted to have 1.3 billion.
India is only one of eight countries projected to contribute greatly to the population rise in the next few decades, along with Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Tanzania.
In contrast, 61 countries are projected to join China in the opposite direction. High life expectancy and low fertility levels in European countries, Japan, North America, Australia, and New Zealand are driving the trend of rapid population aging and eventual declines in population. Because of this, over the next few decades, most population growth for these countries will come from international migration.
Tipping the scales
In many developing countries, such as in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean, the declining fertility rate has produced what experts are calling a “demographic dividend” where the expansion of the working age population (25 to 64 years old) opens up an opportunity for accelerated economic growth per capita.
To make the most of the demographic dividend, countries should work on investing in health care, quality education, and employment. Doing so would contribute to the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, and in slowing down the global population growth.
As for gender, estimates also show that there will soon be as many women in the world as there are men. There’s a slight imbalance now in 2022, with 50.3% men to 49.7% women, but those figures are expected to balance out by 2050.
The promise of 8 billion
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called 2022 a “milestone year,” with “the birth of the Earth’s eight billionth inhabitant.”
“This is an occasion to celebrate our diversity, recognize our common humanity, and marvel at advancements in health that have extended lifespans and dramatically reduced maternal and child mortality rates,” he said.
However, he also cautioned, “At the same time, it is a reminder of our shared responsibility to care for our planet and a moment to reflect on where we still fall short of our commitments to one another.”
As we approach the 8 billion milestone, we are reminded of how far we’ve come as a society, but also of how far we still have to go. As the population continues to grow, so do problems such as COVID-19, climate change, war, hunger, and poverty.
Guterres emphasizes that “eight billion people means eight billion opportunities to live dignified and fulfilled lives,” and urges everyone to work towards a common future, one where every person has equal opportunities to a greater quality of life.
