This generation’s mass exodus

Refugee arrivals from Ukraine, Feb 24th-Mar 13th 2022. Source: UNHCR

In light of the recent conflict between Ukraine and Russia, more than a million people have already fled Ukraine. Surveys are showing that Russians want to leave their country as well—foreshadowing the biggest migration crisis the world has seen in several decades.

Not a wave, more like a tsunami

The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is projected to have devastating effects on the Global Economy. We’re already experiencing the beginnings of it, with the ongoing oil price hike and the inflation rate—well, inflating. The war is also bringing about some other changes that are going to have long term effects on the world, the biggest migration wave Europe has seen since World War 2.

The Economist reports that as of March 3, more than a million residents of Ukraine have already migrated to neighboring European countries. 

Poland bears the brunt of the outpour of refugees, as they have already received almost 550,000 citizens of Ukraine. The rest of the hundreds of thousands have fled into other nearby countries such as Hungary, Moldova, Slovakia, Romania, and Belarus. About 90,000 refugees have ventured further west, as all EU countries have agreed to extend visa-free travel for Ukrainians seeking asylum.

The UNHCR estimates that three million more will flee the country in the coming weeks—but the EU’s estimate is more than double that, as they expect up to seven million refugees. That’s about a quarter of the Ukrainian population that’s eligible to leave, since men aged 18-,60 are required to stay in the country.

The grass is (slightly) greener on the other side

Like an exasperated cat owner spraying water on a metaphorical misbehaving cat, Western countries are placing sanctions on Russia to keep them in check. The sanctions are hitting Russia’s economic situation hard via rising inflation, a currency that’s sinking into record lows, and imports that are expected to dwindle over the coming months. 

For this reason, as well as frustration with their government, a recent survey from the Levada Centre has shown that 43% of Russians aged 18-24 are saying that they want to leave the country for good. 

Data from Google Trends shows that Russia’s Google searches for: political asylum, emigration, flights, and visa spiked in the days leading to the February 24th invasion. The Economist notes that more Russians are Googling “how to leave Russia” now than they have in the past 18 years. In fact, Finnish trains that go from St. Petersburg to Helsinki have been seeing more business than they have in years as Russians are scrambling to leave the country for good.

With a plummeting economy, distrust in Putin’s government, and a bleak outlook on the country’s future, Russian citizens would rather jump ship now then stay and see what happens. Honestly, I would too.

What happens now?

With massive waves of migration happening on both sides, it’s going to affect European countries and the world at large in a number of different ways.

While looking at the numbers gives us perspective, it’s also important to remember that it’s more than just that. These numbers represent real people with stories of deep trauma, uprooting their lives and leaving their homes with no idea if and when they’ll come back. Beyond that, only a little over two weeks after the invasion, reports of hostile treatment towards non-white refugees in receiving countries are already running rampant, and the crisis has only just begun. As it often does during humanitarian crises, anti-immigrant sentiment can only get worse over time.

On the other side, Western sanctions on Russia are about to push their brain drain problem to further heights—more than it already has, considering that about five million people have already left since Putin’s rise to power 20 years ago. Highly trained and highly educated citizens who do not want to live under a dictatorship are getting ready to leave, and when they do, it will severely cripple Russia’s growth and innovation in the long run.

The mass exodus happened almost overnight, but as the conflict forges on and millions of innocent citizens are displaced, we can expect to see the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war to endure for many decades to come.