Hungry for economic recovery

To eat or to save? (Photo from mistylynch.com)

Starving for good news

If running out of money is bad enough, we’ll soon run out of food to eat as well. The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) is expecting supplies of pork, fish, and vegetables to be lacking by year end which would further increase pressure on inflating prices. It’s looking like stress eating will be harder to do by then. It’ll all be just stress. 

Before you suddenly plan an involuntary diet, not every food is expected to meet a shortage. Rice for the year will reach 2.5 million MT which equates to about 68 days worth of stock. Imagine Filipinos without rice? That won’t be a pretty sight. Chicken will also continue to be in the clear as the supply is expected to reach 178,100 MT which will exceed national demand for about 40 days. 

NEDA isn’t all that worried, especially since President Duterte recently signed Executive Order No. 171 which not only extended, but lowered the import tariffs on rice, pork, coal, and corn products. 

“The tariff adjustments will facilitate the diversification of import sources for these products,” NEDA said, adding that “timely unloading of pork stocks from cold storage is also necessary.”

Our hungry tummies should be fine, especially if you like corn, as imports have been at a high in anticipation of a slowdown in local production. I wish I could say the same for our starving wallets. 

Addressing the elephant in the room, inflation is the number one buzzkill word of the year for sure. Yes, it’s basically all we’ve been talking about for the past few months. As most of you know, a lot of it is a result of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine as oil prices and common goods are harder to source. There’s also the addition of China’s attempts at a ‘zero COVID’ status which hinders their trade ports from regular use. 

Now, it’s the weather that’s adding onto the mix. According to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) at the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the La Niña phenomenon is extending towards the end of the year. 

This means that more rainfalls should be expected in the Philippines which will then cause a few problems with our agriculture. While our crops are drowning in water, we’re drowning in bills. 

According to Moody’s Analytics, “The volatility in global commodity markets and an increasingly risk-averse trading environment are likely to sustain inflation well above comfort levels through this year,”. I’ll tell you this much Moody’s Analytics, comfort levels are definitely already passed at this time of the year. 

First-class issue

What do the most comfortable people in the world say about all this talk of inflation? After the Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 75 points (which was the highest bump since 1994, by the way), billionaires like Elon Musk, Bill Gates, and Gary Friedman have come out to say that recession is inevitable. Several other financial institutions have supported their claims as well. 

While a recession might be just a mild headache for some of these big shots in their respective industries, it has been causing the general public to worry about their personal finances. 

President Biden is, however, confident in saying that the warnings should be taken with a grain of salt as the US is in a stronger position to fight back against inflation compared to other countries. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen supported this statement while claiming that bringing down the insane high inflation rate is the Biden administration’s top priority. Must be nice to be reassured like that. 

As for the Philippines, any hope for economic recovery in 2022 is already slim as the rest of the world is still trying to pay the expensive bills themselves and a big possibility of more local lockdowns due to increasing COVID cases once again. What we need are filled wallets, not longer ones.