How the Russia-Ukraine War is threatening global food supplies
Dwindling wheat supplies mean that some of us may no longer be able to get that bread. (Photo: Olga Lioncat)
The International Food Policy Research Institute estimates that Russia and Ukraine account for about 12% of all the food calories traded in the world.
Our World in Data’s visualization shows us just how much of our food supply comes from Russia and Ukraine. These two countries make up more than 20% of global wheat exports, almost 20% of barley exports, and almost 20% of corn exports. Not only that, more than 60% of the world’s supply of sunflower oil (an essential cooking oil) comes from Russia and Ukraine. It is for this reason that the two countries are called Europe’s breadbasket– but with the war disrupting production and distribution, supplies of these staples are starting to dwindle.
We’re already seeing the early signs of a food crisis. Wheat prices hit a record high over the past few weeks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Even worse, the US Department of Agriculture’s assessment of world’ food crops for the month of April predicted that Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports would plummet by at least 7 million metric tons.
With the Ukrainian government banning wheat exports with the goal of prioritizing the needs of Ukrainian citizens, and a growing concern among experts that some countries will follow suit and close their markets in response to the food crisis, a loss of 7 million metric tons is looking more like an optimistic estimate.
Empty basket, empty stomachs
At least 50 countries depend on Russia and Ukraine for 30% or more of their wheat supply, including developing countries from Northern Africa and Asia. Poorer countries whose people are highly dependent on bread as a staple food are most vulnerable to the impending food shortages.
“My greatest fear is that the conflict continues – then we will have a situation of significant levels of food price rises, in poor countries that were already in an extremely weak financial situation owing to Covid-19,” said Maximo Torero, in an interview with the Guardian. “The number of chronically hungry people will grow significantly, if that is the case.”
Countries like Tunisia, Yemen, Lebanon, and Egypt, were already economically volatile, but the disruptions in the food supply chain is only making things worse. People are hungry, and when people are hungry, they riot.
So, with no end in sight to the Russia-Ukraine war, the breadbasket is becoming emptier and emptier– and millions of people are about to suffer the consequences.
