Did scientists “manifest” monkeypox?
“Thank me later when you’re immune to monkeypox too.” (Photo: Pixnio)
The monkeypox outbreak has reached 257 confirmed cases worldwide as reported by the World Health Organization last Sunday.
No deaths have since been reported in non-endemic countries.
"Since 2017, the few deaths of persons with monkeypox in West Africa have been associated with young age or an untreated HIV infection," the WHO said.
The global public health risk level is currently at moderate, considering this is the first time cases and clusters are popping up at the same time in different regions across the world, “and without known epidemiological links to non-endemic countries in West or Central Africa” according to the report. This risk could rise if it spreads to more vulnerable groups, such as young children and immunocompromised people.
The 80s called it
It turns out scientists already saw this outbreak coming, just not three months or one year ago. In fact, they predicted it over 40 years ago.
Way back in 1988, scientists wrote in the International Journal of Epidemiology that over time, "the average magnitude and duration of monkeypox epidemics will increase.” This was penned at a time monkeypox was an extremely rare disease and only a few people each year caught it almost exclusively from rodents or primates.
Their lead? The fading cross-immunity from smallpox exposure and vaccines.
The monkeypox-smallpox connection
Backtrack a couple more years to 1980—smallpox was largely eradicated thanks to a successful vaccination drive that pretty much made everyone in the world kind of immune to it, three years after vaccines were discontinued. This means that unless you’re over 40, you no longer have the same hybrid immunity as someone who’s lived through both the virus and its vaccine.
Quick stats: Monkeypox comes from the same virus family as smallpox. They have nearly identical symptoms, minus the 30% death rate (monkeypox’s is, thankfully, only at 1%), so a smallpox vaccine also works on monkeypox. In short, being immune to smallpox guarantees about 85% protection from monkeypox too, based on the smallpox vaccine’s efficacy rate.
Monkeypox is surging now to fill the “gap” left by smallpox—because we’re simply not used to these kinds of viruses anymore, and because nothing is perfect.
If only they could have done something about the fake news epidemic earlier. Time and time again, vaccines have done their job of protecting us from deadly diseases that could have long wiped us out by now. Apparently, that evidence is still not enough for some people.
